Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.232691 2.356216 2.489916 2.646756 2.827574 3.031949 3.284157
2025-10-12 2.145854 2.309635 2.495408 2.725700 3.009698 3.357888 3.834363
2025-10-19 2.043810 2.226456 2.439782 2.713976 3.068300 3.529879 4.217435
2025-10-26 1.972616 2.169856 2.405815 2.718545 3.139744 3.720574 4.664070
2025-11-02 1.889942 2.091977 2.337489 2.669637 3.130030 3.791770 4.942423
2025-11-09 1.830702 2.038377 2.294520 2.648023 3.152243 3.908834 5.327979
2025-11-16 1.781599 1.994095 2.259693 2.632966 3.179853 4.035659 5.774139
2025-11-23 1.737028 1.952908 2.225844 2.615581 3.200505 4.152423 6.248039
2025-11-30 1.710274 1.932835 2.218015 2.633035 3.274517 4.372023 7.076072
2025-12-07 1.649023 1.865594 2.143866 2.550434 3.182782 4.276520 7.042970
2025-12-14 1.616312 1.834344 2.116798 2.534379 3.196235 4.380281 7.643168
2025-12-21 1.578970 1.795666 2.077908 2.498469 3.173607 4.410029 8.042460
2025-12-28 1.571444 1.797152 2.095505 2.549873 3.306196 4.790981 10.213649
2026-01-04 1.570977 1.807702 2.125778 2.622314 3.484848 5.334203 15.095806
2026-01-11 1.544742 1.782332 2.103894 2.611505 3.510943 5.525462 19.192935
2026-01-18 1.524699 1.764629 2.092063 2.615657 3.565394 5.810520 29.594412
2026-01-25 1.491543 1.727930 2.051375 2.570725 3.519926 5.804705 35.818277
2026-02-01 1.467347 1.702921 2.026808 2.550834 3.522211 5.942600 67.299234
2026-02-08 1.446146 1.681452 2.006614 2.536966 3.535149 6.120098 NaN
2026-02-15 1.425433 1.660098 1.985832 2.520952 3.542053 6.283551 NaN
2026-02-22 1.414537 1.652060 1.984317 2.537012 3.617615 6.720170 NaN
2026-03-01 1.379426 1.609333 1.929996 2.460875 3.489186 6.365128 NaN
2026-03-08 1.361935 1.591064 1.911821 2.446046 3.493079 6.520216 NaN